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The Cardinals defense significantly improved with the addition of J.J. Watt and the return of Chandler Jones on the pass rush. This one was actually pretty entertaining for the first 30 minutes. By Jason McIntyreFOX Sports Betting Analyst. The NFC West features three of FPI's top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren't necessarily an easy out, either. If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. Head coach Bill Cowher would get Super Bowl redemption the next decade, but this 115 team was pretty great all around. Brady and Belichick established the Patriots as a dynasty with their third Lombardi in four years. This may not be the worst championship team of all time, but these Steelers werebarely ataste ofthe greatness that wasto come in the following years. Cleveland hasn't been in a position to win a Super Bowl since Bernie Kosar led the franchise to consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances in the mid-1980s. 25. Cincinnati Bengals +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Bengals will be improved, but theyre not higher on this list for three reasons:. The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. It was a sloppy game that was marred by questionable refereeing, but Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis finally winning a Lombardi Trophy thanks to Willie Parkers record-setting touchdown run and Hines Ward throwing for a score made this a memorable Super Bowl. Quick, use one word to describe Super Bowl XL in Detroit. A.J. The market is super high on Buffalo theyre only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC but there likely will be some form of regression. Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings. More NFL coverage . Jalen Hurts will not pull a ET (Rams, Seahawks, Chargers). Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. Ryan Tannehill has been a top five quarterback over the last two seasons and it hasn't been talked about enough. Denver came in with a historically good offense. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. US residents can opt out of "sales" of personal data. and a dramatic finish. It is not that these teams were not deserving of a Super Bowl, but rather that they do not stack up when compared to the greatest units the NFL has ever seen. The Dolphins capped off the only perfect season ever, despite Garo Yepremian give us an all-time blooper. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. 9. Those questions need to be answered in a division where the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses reside. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. They're the fifth-best team in football and have the fourth-best chance to win it all with a 6% shot, according to FPI. This was the year that Joe Montana and Steve Young alternated starts at quarterback until eventually Montana firmly took the reins down the stretch. New York had to scrap its way to the Super Bowl. As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. But Elways scramble which ended with him being helicoptered in the air remains the most memorable visual from the game. When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. Brett Favre was brilliant in his only Super Bowl win. Pittsburgh sent six men to the Pro Bowl, went a decent 10-3-1 in the regular season and, of course, won the Lombardi Trophy. The eventual champion Colts committed seven, count them, seven turnovers. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! Reeling off 11 straight road wins was impressive, and so was beating the top two seeded teams in the NFC en route to the title game (Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys). Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. If Baker Mayfield improves from last season's campaign, the Browns will contend for a Super Bowl in 2021. Cleveland has the game's top running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, a duo head coach Kevin Stefanski utilizes heavily in the offense. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. ", From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division there isnt an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring., 26. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. We hold major institutions accountable and expose wrongdoing. A 142 season, and the best offense in the league led by Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). and quarterback rating (112.4). Out of 35 qualified quarterbacks last season, Darnold finished 33rd in completion percentage, 30th in interception percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 35th in passer rating. 51. Drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was a questionable move, especially since Cincinnati's atrocious offensive line led to franchise quarterback Joe Burrow tearing his ACL in his rookie season. The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. Miami Dolphins +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. Theres a reason teams from the NFC North are so low here, and its the schedule. To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. Take note: This isn't technically a ranking of the teams from very worst to very best, although the worse teams tend to be toward the bottom and the better teams toward the top. CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL The teams combined for 11 turnovers. The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. This isn't just about winning the closely contested division, though. Three different QBs started six games. Minnesota Vikings +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total), I want to like Minnesota as a buy-low team after rebuilding its defense.. Peyton Manning needed the Saints and Tracy Porter to not come marching in. Id say so, yes.. Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football. 5. The game was a blowout but did give us one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history: Don Beebe chasing down a prematurely celebrating Leon Lett. It truly is a remarkable tale, but the Patriots were nothing special on the way there. Terrell Davis three-touchdown game won him MVP honors. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense., If they get by the Rams in Week 3, theyll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and youll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later., 2. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. A year before perfection. Atlanta Falcons +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total), New coach, new offensive coordinator just too much newness for me., That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe theyre hovering around .500. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. Theyve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason., When narratives build for example, that Lamar Jackson cant win in the playoffs you can find an edge fading them., 1. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). The one Peyton let get away. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. So their overall grade suffered. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/2019-super-bowl-rankings-best-to-worst, a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs, Anthony Richardson showed off his freakish athleticism by breaking 2 NFL Combine records, Joey Porter Jr. shared a wholesome moment with dad Joey Porter at 2023 NFL Combine, Will Levis finally shared the origin story for his mayo coffee, How to watch the NFL Combine, live stream, TV channel, Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends, Bryce Young's measurements at the NFL Combine are almost identical to Kyler Murray's, C.J. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. Kirk Cousins may not be elite, but he's a pretty good quarterback. Obsessed with travel? FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. But the Super Bowl? They were the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, but 28th on defense. A 142 record with the seventh best defense in points scored against in the league. What will the Buffalo Bills do without defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier? San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. Peyton Mannings struggles reinforced the notion that he could be great in the regular season but collapsed in the playoffs. Losing three offensive linemen is gonna sting. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. At 133, this New England Patriots offense was extraordinary, but their defense was lacking and kept them out of the top 20. Unfortunately, they lost both starting tackles for the Super Bowl and could not stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beast-mode pass rush. Were on a run of blowouts now. Trent Dilfer. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. The Kansas City Chiefs might have lost Super Bowl LV, but they are still the NFL team to beat this season, according to the new ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections for 2021. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). 32. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. WebWhat was the worst NFL offensive team to win a Super Bowl? Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20. 18. Odell Beckham makes a highly anticipated return to a passing game that includes Jarvis Landry and an emerging Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). The Patriots dynasty started with a massive upset that ended with a Tom Brady game-winning drive and clutch kick by Adam Vinatieri. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. 14. We've been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. Between free agency and players opting back in from 2020, New England had a massive talent infusion.. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. Brown, setting the stage for Jones to have a huge first season in Tennessee. The Broncos do have to see Mahomes and the Chiefs twice, but they play only four top-10 FPI teams and get the extra home game for being in the AFC. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. A special season in Tennessee could be in store. Give them five years to become a dynasty. The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. Jets, vs. Eagles, vs. Lions, vs. Bengals and a home-and-home with the Raiders. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. 5 offense. 4. Those numbers are buoyed by two factors: FPI projects them to have the best defense in the league. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland's offense -- which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills -- but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense. Adding Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods, Sheldon Richardsonand Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency improves this unit -- which also gets Danielle Hunter back from a neck injury.